竞争失效产品恒应力加速寿命试验优化新方法

对加速寿命试验设计优化的相关知识进行研究分析,确定以竞争失效产品恒应力加速寿命试验为应用背景。在对加速寿命试验统计分析深入研究的基础上,通过分析方案要素、约束条件等建立优化目标函数,提出基于模拟退火算法的优化方法和具体实现思路。最后通过实例验证方法的可行性和实用性。     

Understanding the ‘failure’ of the Séléka rebellion

This paper examines the downfall of the Séléka rebellion, which staged a coup in the Central African Republic in March 2013. The coup plunged the country into violence and chaos, and there has been an uneasy quest for peace ever since. This article explains why the leader of the rebellion lost control over his troops and was finally pushed by regional actors to leave power. The article concludes that the Séléka rebellion was already fragile and, together with the poor leadership demonstrated by the coalition leader, the rebellion was unable to hold on to power.     

Investigation on the foaming behaviors of NC-based gun propellants

To prepare the porous NC-based (nitrocellulose-based) gun propellants, the batch foaming process of using supercritical CO₂ as the physical blowing agent is used. The solubilities of CO₂ in the single-base propellants and TEGDN (trimethyleneglycol dinitrate) propellants are measured by the gravimetric method, and SEM (scanning electron microscope) is used to observe the morphology of foamed propellants. The result shows that a large amount of CO₂ could be dissolved in NC-based propellants. The experimental results also reveal that the energetic plasticizer TEGDN exerts an important influence on the pore structure. The triaxial tensile failure mechanism for solid-state nucleation is used to explain the nucleation of NC-based propellants in the solid state. Since some specific foaming behaviors of NC-based propellants can not be explained by the failure mechanism, a solid-state nucleation mechanism which revises the triaxial tensile failure mechanism is proposed and discussed.     

高亚声速时叶尖小翼对压气机叶栅泄漏流动的影响

为了探索跨声速来流条件时,不同安装位置、不同宽度的叶尖小翼对压气机叶栅气动特性的影响,对Ma=0.8时包括原型叶栅在内的7种扩压叶栅的流场进行了数值研究.结果表明:在多种因素的共同影响下,不同来流冲角的吸力面叶尖小翼在流场中都为负效果,增加了流场复杂性;压力面叶尖小翼则改善了泄漏流动,减小了流动损失.两种安装位置的叶尖...     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

一种适用于长基线的改进CIR算法

长基线下,受伪距多径和电离层残差影响,传统的CIR法解算载波相位宽巷模糊度时某些历元无法得到正确的结果,基础载波模糊度的搜索范围也较大。分析了CIR法的模糊度误差,提出了基于载波相位平滑伪距并且消除电离层时延的改进的CIR算法,分析了其误差方差,最后利用Compass系统实测数据对短基线和长基线两种情况下CIR法和改进CIR法的解算结果进行比较。实测数据表明,本文提出的算法能够单历元解算超宽巷模糊度和宽巷模糊度,并且能够大大缩小基础载波模糊度的搜索空间。     

内腐蚀缺陷尺寸对DN150承插管线承压能力的影响

为了科学地指导DN150承插管线的使用与管理,采用非线性有限元法对带内腐蚀缺陷的DN150承插管线进行了剩余强度的评估。通过分析和计算,研究了腐蚀缺陷宽度、长度和深度对管线极限承载能力的影响。结果表明：腐蚀缺陷宽度对DN150承插管线的承载能力影响很小,可忽略不计;随着腐蚀缺陷长度的增加,管线的承载能力略微减小,当缺陷长度达到150mm,管道失效压力基本不变;随着腐蚀缺陷深度的增加,管道失效压力呈线性递减,其对管道失效压力的影响程度远远大于腐蚀缺陷长度。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

导弹系统安全性分析中的引发事件鉴别方法

引发事件鉴别是基于事故机理安全性分析的首要任务。鉴别结果是否全面、完整直接影响最终分析结果的有效性。导弹系统安全风险涉及面广、影响因素多,需要系统的可操作方法来指导引发事件的鉴别工作。针对导弹工作特点,提出考虑导弹任务剖面,运用主逻辑图对导弹进行系统性的层次化描述,对引发事件进行整理和归纳。将危险与可操作性分析引入导弹系统安全性分析中进行引发事件鉴别,结合故障模式影响分析,支持对单一故障类和参数异常类引发事件的鉴别。结果表明,所提框架为解决导弹系统安全性分析中引发事件鉴别的系统性完整性提供了可行的思路。     

复杂网络节点重要度评估及网络脆弱性分析

提出一种基于节点状态演化级联失效模型的节点重要度评估和网络脆弱性分析方法。故障传递演化的内在机理是基础复杂网络变得脆弱的根源。在负载网络级联失效模型的基础上,提出一种能够实时跟踪节点负载状态,继而根据节点状态来重分配节点负载的重分配模型。提出基于节点状态演化的节点重要性评估和网络结构脆弱性分析方法,通过脆弱性分析结果找出网络的健壮性参数,并对此节点重要性评估方法进行失效分析。通过仿真实验验证方法的有效性。